What I've been reading - March / April 2016

A slower couple of months on the reading front so combined into one ...

Predictably irrational by Dan Ariely

Really enjoyed this book.  As the cover puts it …. “In a series of illuminating and groundbreaking experiments, behavioural economist Dan Airely demonstrates how expectations, emotions, social norms and other invisible, seemingly illogical forces skew our reasoning abilities.   Not only do we make astonishingly simple mistakes every day,,but we make the same types of mistakes.  We consistently overpay, underestimate and procrastinate.  We fail to understand the profound effects of our emotions on what we want, and we overvalue what we already own.  Yet these misguided behaviours are neither random nor senseless.  They’re systematic and predictable."

Not going to argue with that - fascinating read,

The book is full of examples of intriguing experiments that have been run.  In one case undergraduate students were recruited to take part in an experiment.  In the first part they were to solve some anagrams.  When the'd done this they were told that the experiment had a second part and that they needed to go down the corridor to another room to complete it.  What was actually being studied though was simply how long it took them to walk down the corridor to the second room.  Some of the participants were given words to unscramble that could be associated with “elderly” - US experiment so examples included Florida, bingo, ancient etc.  The people primed with the elderly words had a considerably slower walking speed to the next room than the control group that was not primed in this way!

In another example they explore how satisfaction with your food in a restaurant can be best assured by being the first person to order!  ( That way your order is not influenced in any way by what people before you have said).

Big Data by Bernard Marr

 

The world is getting smarter and big data is at the core, we increasingly leave a digital trail and this can be analysed by increasingly smart analytic software.  “Big Data” is often talked about and the huge volumes of information that is being gathered.  Arguably though the value is not in the volume but rather in the things that can now be done with that data.

The book provides a SMART framework for Big Data

• Start with strategy - get clear on what you want to achieve, and what questions you want to answer
• Measure metrics and data - understand different sorts of data ( structured vs unstructured, internal vs external etc), think though what sources of data you need to answer your questions
• Apply Analytics - use the appropriate analytic tools to process the data
• Report your results - think through how the data will be visualised, lots of new ways being developed that can be used to enable people to see the data.
• Transform your business and decision making - gain fresh insights into your customers, internal processes, people.

The author has also written “Big Data in practice” - a collection of 45 case studies showing how companies are applying Big Data and analytics to their businesses.   Given my focus on the application to HR it was interesting to note that none of his 45 case studies are from that area.  

The HR Scorecard Linking People, Strategy, and Performance by Becker, Hustlid and Ulrich

The book focuses on how HR professionals can take a more strategic view of HR and its contribution to the success of the organisation.  Issues of alignment and mapping how HR contributes to the business strategy are covered.  Important to note that as HR Scorecard is developed this is not a one off activity but rather something that will need to constantly evolve as the needs of ht business change.  

They draw a distinction between Lagging and leading indicators.  Lagging indicators reflect what has happened in the past, e.g. financial indicators.  Leading indicators, unsurprisingly, are things that you can measure now which are predictors of future outcomes, examples might include current customer satisfaction as indicator of future sales.   Using lagging indicators is easier but they compare it to trying to drive a car by looking in the rear view mirror.

Another important point they make is the issue of using available data rather than relevant data to drive decisions.  Will be tempting to use the data that we are already collecting to base decisions on but this may not be the data that you need.  Using convenient data rather than relevant data to drive your decisions may not be a formula for success.

What I've been reading - February 2016

OK so this is a bit after the fact but here are some thoughts on books I read in February

Corporate Responsibility by Michael Blowfield and Alan Murray second edition 

This is a text book that sets out to provide an introduction to the "key ideas and practices in the field" of corporate responsibility.  Split into 3 sections it starts by covering what corporate responsibility is and its origins.  Next, it turns to the question of managing and implementing corporate responsibility before concluding with a section on the impact it has, some critiques and some thoughts on the future.  Throughout it is an easy read with lots of examples and case studies to illustrate the points being made.

Doing a Literature Search by Chris Hart 

Comprehensive but very dated feel to the book.   Covers all sorts of data sources and where to look for a literature search but originally written in 2001 and a lot has changed since then.  For someone familiar with libraries and working with information sources there in unlikely to be much to gain from reading this book.

Learn to Write Badly, How to Succeed in the Social Sciences by Michael Billig

Some very interesting ideas in this book that looks at the style of academic writing in the social sciences.  He asks, why is the style used by social scientists routinely poor and why does it continue to get worse.   Makes some points about why academic language has evolved as it is and draws various comparisons between natural sciences and social sciences.  For me the second half of the book was less engaging as it became much more specific and less general.

In contrast to today's highly specialised language, he talks (on p15) how writers in the past, such as Adam Smith, wrote in a way that their work could be read by people from different disciplines.  Their writing was rooted in the use of non-technical words which enabled easier understanding.  As he puts it they were "writing in small words for big circles" versus today where "The words have become longer and the circles, in which they circulate, have become smaller."

In talking about league tables and how universities emphasise their research capability he picks the University of Winchester as an example and discusses at some length what their website says about the university.  Guess he had to pick somewhere but still a surprise to see Winchester featuring as the only university whose website he comments on.

When Prophecy Fails by Leon Festinger, Henry Riecken and Stanley Schachter

The first of 2 books this month where the author(s) reflects on experience of having been part of a group - in both cases, especially the first one, some real challenges around how the presence of the observer may affect the group being observed.

The experimental psychologist Leon Festinger had been working on a new theory of cognitive dissonance and how this would affect human behaviour.   In essence this says that when we have 2 mutually incompatible things in our head then we need to work out some way to reconcile them.     For example if I know that exercise is good for me and I also know that I don't exercise how do I reconcile these things?  I could start doing more exercise or I can construct a rationale to explain it away... I would do more exercise but at the moment I'm very busy at work so I can't but as soon as that is under control then of course I will do some more exercise.... that sort of thing.

This book tells how they were able to join a cult which believes that the world is set to end in the coming months.  How would the members of the cult feel when the predicted end of the world didn't occur and they were not picked up by a spacecraft as had been foretold?  

The answer is surprising at first but consistent with the theory.   When they are not picked up and the world does not end, what is beautifully labeled as the "disconfirmation event", the cult grows significantly in its efforts to recruit new members and starts proselytising in a way that they did not previously.

An easy read ( certainly compared with the books above !) and a well told and engaging story alongside the theory.  Given the small size of the cult the researchers did form quite a significant part of the group which certainly did make me wonder about their influence on the group.   This however is something that is addressed by the authors and creatively dealt with - including the time when one of them was asked to lead a session.   No way to back out of it and not wanting to preach to the group ( and hence potentially influence their thinking ) the researcher, in a stroke of genius, leads the group in silent meditation.

Gang Leader for a Day by Sudhir Venkatesh

Sociology student goes out into “the projects” and gets involved with the local gang - the Black Kings.  Befriends the gang leader JT and gains insight into the workings of the gang including different perspectives from people inside and outside the gang.   

Fascinating insight into how things work and the similarity of the challenges that leaders face, motivation, discipline etc - all be it in a different context and with very different mechanisms for implementation.

Also interesting to see challenges of observing from within the system that you are studying.   Presence there influences the situation around you so you can never observe detached from the system.

Some thoughts on the day after the night before

As I start typing I'm not sure quite where this will go but yesterday's referendum marks such an important and pivotal moment in time that I want to capture some thoughts.

For context let me start by saying I believed strongly that the right thing was for us to remain.  I get that there are issues with the EU but that's true with pretty much every group of people I've ever worked with who come together around some common cause.  There will always be fallings out and disagreements but my belief is that we get the best outcome by working through the issues.  Much better to be together and at least talking than apart I think.  Remaining and engaging and leading in Europe was my preferred course rather than leaving.

I value the opinion of experts as one input to my thinking and like to try and anchor my views in evidence based reasoning.  I also feel that voting is important and think it is true to say that I have voted in every formal election ( be that at the local, county, national or European level) since I got the vote.

Of all the things I have voted on in those many years this was the one where I felt most strongly that there was a clear right answer - normally I am much more of a relativist.

I've plenty of experience of voting and having the result not be in line with my vote but today I have  felt a real sadness and worry about the way the vote has gone that I have not experienced before.

I'f I'm honest I'm also angry with both sides for the posturing, wild assertions, and distinctly questionable use of some statistics.  This was a big and important issue and I think deserving of a better quality of debate than we got.  Some of the blame for that must also rest on us as a society generally as what we are fed is what is known to have worked before.   If it's necessary to make us angry or scared before we will turn out and vote then it's perhaps no surprise that this is the diet we are then fed.

There was also a real absence of discussion about what the impact on others might be of us choosing to remain or leave.   Any country leaving would have an impact on the others and I think we carry responsibility for how our actions affect those around us.  For me, being one of the bigger countries in the EU brought with it additional responsibility.

It worries me hugely that people will have voted ( on either side ) based on hyperbole and misleading information.  We don't know what the future holds but one scenario certainly is that we get a growing understanding of the consequences of leaving to the point where we end up exiting at a point where the balance of public opinion has shifted in favour of staying.   The reverse of course is also possible that we discover that things actually work out a lot better than anticipated.  I find myself fearing the former but hoping for the latter.

The result was close in terms of percentages for and against but we can't deny that the electorate has spoken and, thankfully, with a good turnout.  There are clips appearing online purporting to be of people saying they regret their choice of vote but I think these are most likely outliers and the overwhelming majority of the people voting to leave did so because they believed that this was the right thing to do - just as determinedly and passionately as those voting to remain.

Having reached this point it will be interesting to see what happens next as clearly a referendum is just a chance for the electorate to answer the question before them.   Today we have the same laws in force as yesterday and the same agreements and are still members of the EU - all be it that we may well have burnt some bridges in spectacular fashion.   My understanding is that to change any of this and to actually remove us from the EU will need parliament to act.

Even if it is not legally binding it would be surprising, having asked the question, for parliament not to act on the answer.  But I'm not clear what the proposed timescale is for any action.   We have various people saying different things and it seems as though any action will wait on the election of a new leader for the Conservatives.

Given there will be a gap, how long would it be before MPs might feel they weren't beholden to what was said yesterday?  How long before they might say ... ah well that is what you said but look at how xyz has changed since then...?  What if the gap is such that we end up having a general election before action is taken - what happens then if MPs are elected on Pro EU manifestos ?

We also have the dynamic that we are told the majority of MPs in today's parliament favoured remaining in the EU - that's got to be a real dilemma when then asked to vote in a way contrary to what you believe is the best course of action.  Under our brand of democracy my understanding has always been that we elect people to represent us and charge them to vote on matters on our behalf, not necessarily by reflecting what we think.

Much as I passionately would like to see us remain, delaying and then ignoring the expressed will of the people would seem a route to trouble, but on the other hand sticking with a course of action in the light of new information would also seem potentially troublesome.  Maybe the coming days will bring clarity but right now I can't help feeling that we have voted to do something but aren't too clear when or how we will do it.

David Cameron announcing he will stand down introduces additional uncertainty into the process but I can't see how his position was tenable.    There is the lack of authority brought on by being on the loosing side of the debate but also had he gone ahead and led the move towards the EU exit any issues which arose in the economy or our relationships as a consequence would I'm sure have been laid at his feet.  You can hear the accusatory cries ..."you never wanted to leave so you've messed up the negotiations ..." and so forth.  Can't help wondering if that was in part behind the desire of the Leave campaign to see him stay in post and lead the exit.

We are definitely in uncharted, and most likely turbulent, waters but collectively for better or for worse that is where we have chosen to sail this particular ship ( to borrow the PM's captain metaphor).

We will never know what might have been had we taken a different course, life is always full of challenges and problems and it would be easy to put on the rose tinted glasses and forget that bad things would have happened had we chosen to remain because from time to time things outside your control just happen.  We'll also need to resist the urge to blame every bad thing that happens from now on the vote - yes there will be some obvious things attributable to the decision and the negotiations that follow but blaming everything on it, or indeed the people who voted to leave, won't help.

The 23rd June will definitely be a date that historians of the future look back to.  There is no doubt that I woke up in a country this morning that had changed from when I went to sleep in a few hours earlier.  Quite how it has changed will only become clear over time.

Making a start on the 3rd module of the DBA course

Loyal readers will remember that last September I embarked on the Doctoral Business Administration part time degree course offered through the University of Winchester.   Incidentally,  if you harbour an interest in a challenging but rewarding program of study like this, then I believe there will be a new cohort starting this September.  Check out their website for more details or get in touch with me and I'll be happy to talk about my experience thus far.

The DBA program starts with a set of 6 taught modules - one a term for the first 2 years.  Each of the modules follows the same pattern with 2 taught "weekends" and then time to produce an assignment. Yesterday and today saw the 2015 cohort at the Business School for the first weekend of the 3rd module - "Maximising Engagement and Impact".

Under the expert and enthusiastic leadership of Dr Martina Hutton we have spent two full days exploring questions of scholarship,  identifying the "conversations" that we want to be a part of, our identity as researchers, ideas around what our contribution will be through our DBA thesis.   As usual the days have been a mix of content to get us thinking, practical exercises, and discussion amongst the group.   As the modules progress the cohort gets to know each other ever better and the richness of questioning, challenging and support of each other increases.  Considering the comparatively short time it is since we started this journey it really is amazing to see just how far we have all progressed in our thinking about what our area of research will be.   It is a privilege to be a part of the research journey that my fellow cohort members are taking and I am very excited to see what they come up with in the coming months and years - indeed I think one of my challenges will be keeping the focus on my own research and not getting distracted and intrigued by some of the things the others are looking at.

The assignment for this module is to write a short paper ( up to 3000 words) on a topic of our choice ( the most obvious being to choose something aligned with our research interest) and then to create a presentation that allows us to share the findings with any audience that we choose.  The final element is then a short reflection on that process and our success at disseminating our findings through both the paper and presentation.

As part of today's module we had some writing exercises including spending a short amount of time to come up with a possible title and abstract for our paper.   An interesting exercise in that it forces you to conceive what it is that you may end up writing.  Pretty much a given that, as we engage with the process of research and thinking about the topic, what we come up with will differ from what we imagined today but it was a powerful technique for helping to at least crystallise some initial lines of enquiry.

Here's what I came up with...

Computer says "yes" but what happens next? Understanding the impact on employee engagement when HR Analytics are used to determine employee compensation.

Abstract

Have you ever felt if only the decision had been based on data rather than taken by failible human beings you'd have got the pay rise you deserved? What if we had the ability to take those decisions at an organisational level removing scope for bias and prejudice? The increasing ability to harvest employee data and application of HR Analytics offers the promise of just such a nirvana but does it work in practice?   Every action has a reaction, and this paper will explore both the art of the possible and some of the potential consequences of taking a data driven approach to compensation decisions.  Models of Employee Engagement are used to provide a framework for the discussion, looking at both the short and longer term impacts on staff and managers. The paper concludes with an initial exploration of how the mere act of taking an Analytic based approach can lead to changed behaviour as employees seek to maximise their chances of a favourable personal outcome.


I'm really looking forward to working on the paper over the coming months ( due date is in September).   Any comments you have on the topic or indeed suggestions of areas I could look into as part of the assignment will be gratefully received.

What I've been reading - January

As part of studying for the DBA I'm reading more books at the moment and thought I'd have a go at writing up a short summary each month on what I've consumed.

Let's start with January's haul...and hopefully in the months to come I will catch up a bit...

Two books this month on stories.

In "The Hero with a Thousand Faces"  Joseph Campbell explores the world of mythology and introduces us to the "Monomyth".  In essence all the varied stories from different cultures and traditions reduce down to a similar core.  Our hero of the tale ventures forth from their normal life into a supernatural world where they encounter challenges that they must overcome before the triumphant return bearing "the ultimate boon".  Different supporting cast appear or not and variances such as whether the return is assisted or is an escape are there but at the core we have the same basic structure to the story.   I found it very interesting to encounter so many mythologies that I had not come across before along with some familiar tales.  I was familiar with Jonah's exploits with the whale but previously unaware that the Eskimo's have a tale of the Raven that enters the belly of a whale. Not always an easy read (phrases like "and other concupiscent incubi of the rout of Pan" seeing me reaching for my Chambers app) but an enjoyable one.

"Morphology of the Folktale" by V Propp provides an astonishingly detailed framework for categorising pretty much ever significant aspect of a story and encoding it in a specific notation.  To take but one example the notation and analysis distinguish between the various ways that the hero of the tale "acquires the use of a magical agent" - was it directly transferred to them, or maybe it was pointed out to them, or fell into their hands by chance, or appeared of its own accord, or was consumed by them, or made for them, or sold to them, or seized by them, or (if it is an animal) places itself at their disposal.   These different possibilities all have their own encoding building up to a notation for the whole tale.   Here is one example showing how each step of the myth is encoded and builds up to a single "phrase" for the whole tale so you get the idea...


An impressive piece of work but of the two books I'd recommend Campbell's book as the more engaging.


"Obliquity: why our goals are best achieved indirectly" by John Kay offered a complete contrast. The essence of the book is that the best way of achieving what we want may not be to directly aim for it.   Think for example of a business that wants to increase revenue and profits.  It could focus on measuring and reporting those figures or it could identify something else that would drive the desired outcome.   I recently read about a company that had decided to focus its energies on being a great employer and creating an environment and culture that put employees first.   The argument being that great, happy employees provide good service to your customers.   Great customer service retains existing business and attracts new clients as well.  Result... increased revenue and profits.

The final one for this month is "The Shift: The Future of Work is already here" by Lynda Gratton.   I'd heard Lynda talk on this topic a couple of years ago at a London Business School event so it was good to take some time to read the book to build on what I had heard already. In the book she lays out a range of possible scenarios for the future world of work and how we may be operating.  Done through a series of scenarios detailing the lives of fictitious workers of the future various possibilities are brought to life.   She argues that we will see shifts in work increasingly play out.  One of the most significant I thought was her suggestion that we will need to achieve serial mastery.  General skills, knowing a little about lots of things won't count for as much as detailed mastery.  Given the rate of change and also the length of time people will be working however they will also need to be able to shift into other areas over time developing mastery in one area and then another.

Becoming a student again

Back in September I signed up to be part of the first cohort to study for the newly launched Doctoral Business Administration degree at the University of Winchester. It's a part time degree program that should take me somewhere between 4 and 7 years to complete.  The first 2 years consist of 6 taught modules ( 1 per term) that are designed to build skills and insights that will then equip us to complete our thesis.  We are a small but diverse group of people drawn from of a wide range of job roles and experiences which makes for some great discussions when we are together.

With the assignment for the first module - a critical ( that's critical as in looking at decisions made and reasons for them and not to be confused with criticising ) review of my professional development and a future development plan - submitted it seemed like a good time to look back at what has happened so far.

Since completing my MBA back in the mid 90s I've always harboured the thought that it would be good to do some further study and have looked at various programs from other universities. A couple of things that drew me to this one were the structure of the program, convenience of the location, and my existing contact with some of the faculty. It was still a major decision to make as the time and money required are significant but one that felt right.

A term in and I have no regrets, yes finding the time to fit it in alongside everything else I do is, and will remain, very tough but it's great to be a student again. All learning changes you and I've certainly noticed already that the extensive reading I'm now doing is filtering into my discussions with people both at work and beyond. I've also had the joy of renewing my Bodleian card and returning to some of Oxford's libraries and indeed venturing in to some that I had not visited before - Mathematicians not having much call to visit the Social Sciences Library.

Having online access to journals is terrific but there is still something very satisfying about summoning old copies from the stacks and joining the hushed studious environment of one of the reading rooms to work your way through them.






The first module was always going to be the one where I started to get a feel for what was required so in numbers here is how it panned out...

I read 16 books on a range of topics including Critical Reflection and many aspects of learning and development

in addition I've skimmed or read parts of a further 6 books and consumed around 50 academic journal articles.  When it came to writing the 5,000 (+/- 10%) word assignment one of my biggest challenges was letting go of some interesting ideas I'd read about, taken notes on and wanted to include but didn't fit inside the word count ( Reber's work on Implicit learning and Tacit Knowledge being just one example).

For the next module I need to pin down what my area of research will be for the next few years as I pursue the DBA.  More details to come as I work that out...

"Inequality - social evil or acceptable cost of free market capitalism?"

"Inequality – social evil or acceptable cost of free market capitalism?" was the title of a talk given recently at the University of Winchester Business School by the Director of The Equality Trust.

Their website states "UK income inequality is among the highest in the developed world and evidence shows that this is bad for almost everyone. The Equality Trust works to improve the quality of life in the UK by reducing economic inequality." so the talk clearly comes from a particular point of view.

It was really interesting to hear what he had to say and some of the conclusions arising from research in this area.  The presentation gave us some data without much definition and context but subsequently I have spent some time exploring their website  which I would commend to you as a source of summaries of findings and they provide plenty of links to research on the topic.  This page included an interesting contrast between income inequality and wealth inequality.   I knew from the talk that the UK was one of the most unequal countries on their list for income ( as measured by the Gini coefficient).  What surprised me in the data was how low we come in the ranking for wealth inequality.  Not only that but the most unequal country for wealth was the country that was shown in the talk as least unequal for income which was an interesting contrast.  I'll not spoil the surprise as to who it is...  Would be interesting to dig into this a bit more and understand what the boundaries are between "wealth" and "income" in this context.  Does, for example, the category of "income" include any returns that I receive from my "welath" - eg dividend payments if I had shares.

The other surprise to me from the talk was that the UK Gini coefficient actually declined a bit between 2010 and 2011.  With some bumps up and down in the intervening years we are tracking at the same level as it was in 1990,  all be it that this was sharply up over the preceding 2 decades. That's not to say it isn't a problem but my impression had been that we were in an era of rising inequality.

We saw how Income inequality and a general index of health and social problems seem to correlate - I did notice though that the data here for income inequality was actually not the same as the Gini coeficient data on the previous ranking chart so unsure exactly what this was measuring.  Need to dig into this a bit more to understand where this data is from - "The Spirit Level" now on the list of books I need to read someday.

Our speaker made a good point about use of language and how that influences our view.  Articles in business press for example will tend to refer to the high earners and their pay packages under heading of "talent management".  Discussions of lower earners will tend to be around "workforce costs" or "resource planning". Communicating a message of unequal valuing of the people perhaps.   The use of language to "guide" your audience is of course pervasive and often reflecting of the narrative that the writer is aligning with.   Looking at articles on CEO pay in the press there is usually some comment around the ratio of their pay to the median or lowest paid in the company.  Read about the income of a sportsman, and this language simply doesn't seem to be there.  To take just one example, I'm not sure I've ever seen a ranking of footballers' salaries that looked at how that compares as a multiple of the income for the lowest paid employee/worker at the club.

Discussion of inequality is often accompanied by a linked discussion of CEO pay and indeed this did come up during this talk.   What would happen I wondered if you looked at top FTSE 100 CEO salaries, which of itself has of course limited the view to leaders of public companies rather than privately held enterprises, and mixed in earnings from some other potentially high income groups.

To the extent that the reported incomes are actually reflective of reality ( sources noted at the end) here is what I found with a few minutes of web searching.

Top 3 FTSE 100 CEO earners

1 - £42.978m
2 - £19.51m
3 - £16.176m

Taking a look at top paid UK people on the "World's highest-paid Athletes" list that fall in this range we have

1 - £32.11m
2 - £25.93m
3 - £23.27m
4 - £17.88m

Adding in report of top paid actor

1 - £17m

So while a lot of  the heat and fury seems to be directed at the public company CEO pay, by the time we have worked our way down to third place we have already picked up 4 sportsmen and an actor. Our population of top earners is now only 37.5% CEO, and I'm sure there are other categories, such as the entire music industry, that I could have looked at to find other people that would come into this bracket.

I'm not saying here that there isn't an issue, what I'm wondering is why it is that the focus is so disproportionately on the minority of the top earners who happen to be FTSE 100 CEOs and the comparison of their salary as multiples of what others earn.   If the aim is to address inequality then why focus on this group?   I wonder perhaps if it is something to do with what skills we value as society?  Is it that we see a footballer/actor/singer/.... performing their art and we appreciate a skill in what they do but somehow we fail to recognise the skills and abilities of the CEO?

So, a really thought provoking evening and one which, as you will have noticed and perhaps unsurprisingly, leaves me with more questions than answers.


Sources of my data 

Huffington Post FTSE 100 Top Earners - http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/08/17/ftse-100-ceo-pay-top-ten-ceo-earners-2015_n_7997598.html

Forbes world's Highest paid athlete - http://www.forbes.com/athletes/   converting USD to UKP at current exchange rates on 27th Nov 2015 using Google.co.uk search box.

Highest paid actor - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/celebritynews/11783705/Daniel-Craig-only-Brit-in-Forbes-list-of-highest-paid-actors-2015-with-27m.html